A multi-factorial analysis of the impact of climate
change on marginal agriculture systems
BRITISH-ITALIAN PARTNERSHIP PROGRAMME FOR YOUNG RESEARCHERS
"Coping
with climate change"
Background
Climate
change represents a significant source of risk to the future viability of
marginal agricultural systems. Such systems ability to adapt can often be constrained
by their biophysical resources or their ability to invest in new infrastructure
required by alternative land uses. While frequently marginal in terms of financial
viability such agricultural systems perform a vital stewardship function, maintaining
communities and landscapes. It is important that the implications of climate
change are explored for these systems and that strategies are developed to ameliorate
the effects of climate change on their financial, social and environmental viability.
One approach to these questions is to test the impacts of climate change scenarios
for exemplar management units. The Macaulay Institute has, for 10 years, been
developing computer-based decision support systems (DSS) to assist land-managers
with strategic, farm-scale, land-use planning decisions. These DSS provide a
framework within which it is possible to conduct a wide range of counterfactual
analyses assessing the financial, social and environmental impacts of changes
to the land management context (http://www.macaulay.ac.uk/LADSS/ladss.shtml).
The DSS have been particularly successful in allowing exploration of the structure
of trade-offs between multiple objectives. Since the individual land-management
unit is one of the fundamental units within the agri-ecosystem, understanding
the impacts of change on these units may also be used to better inform policy
makers. The range of land use systems, and the impacts that may be evaluated,
have been greatly expanded by the integration of the multi-crop simulation system
CropSyst with the DSS. This development has been conducted in collaboration
with the developers of CropSyst at Washington State University (WSU). A principal
collaborator in the development of CropSyst is the research group led by Dr.
M. Donatelli of the Research Institute for Industrial Crops (ISCI). This group
has considerable experience in the application of CropSyst in a European context
particularly in the testing of the implications of climate change on cropping
systems (see the references section). ISCI-Agronomy is also involved in developing
software tools for agrometeorology and agricultural modelling, including reusable
components (http://www.sipeaa.it/tools).
ISCI-Agronomy is one of the coordinators of an Expression of Interest presented
to the EU (Future of the Land: Linking Science and Society) to develop the system
SEAMLESS (A System
for Environmental and Agro-ecological Modelling; Linking European Science and
Society) within the EU 6th Research Framework Program.
Test sites: Hartwood Research
Station, Azienda Agraria
"Agrichiana Farming"
Wikipedia
Scenario Characterization within a Multi-factorial Study of Climate Change Impacts on Whole-Farm Systems
Bellocchi G., Rivington M., Matthews K.B., Buchan K., Donatelli M.
Paper presented to VIII European Society fo Agronomy Congress, Copenhagen, 11-15 July, 2004
Introduction
Holistic studies of climate change (CC) impacts
on whole farm systems require a range of assessment metrics to characterise
the change scenarios. Characterisation of the change scenarios is required to
enable results from an overall holistic study to be put into context, aiding
interpretation of output, which will then permit potential adaptation and amelioration
strategies to be identified and developed. This study details the use of several
metrics, as the first part of a comprehensive holistic study to investigate
and quantify the additional risk that climate change may have on the financial,
social and environmental viability of two different farming systems.
download paper (pdf) download
presentation (pdf)
An
integrated modelling approach to conduct multi-factorial analysis on the impacts
of climate change on whole-farm systems
Rivington
M., Bellocchi G., Matthews K.B., Buchan K., Donatelli M.
Paper presented to IEMSS 2004 International Congress, Osnabrück 14-17 June, 2004
Abstract
Climate change impact studies on whole-farm systems require a
holistic approach due to the complexities of biophysical processes, management
and inter-relationships of land use within a single farm. This paper details
the process of utilising a multiple-objective, strategic land use planning tool
to conduct multi-factorial analyses on the impacts of climate change at the
farm scale. Two example sites are given to illustrate the flexibility of the
method: an upland mixed sheep and suckler cow farm in Scotland, with cold wet
winters and cool moist summers; and a combined cropping and indoor reared beef
farm in Italy, with cool moist winters and warm dry summers. The approach allows
the additional risk that climate change may introduce to the farm system to
be quantified. Model output facilitates the development of adaptation and amelioration
strategies. This Integrated Assessment (AI) approach employs the Land Allocation
Decision Support System (LADSS), a framework which permits a wide range of counter-factual
assessments of financial, social and environmental impacts of changes to policy,
management and biophysical conditions. The framework contains a Geographical
Information System (GIS) and relational database linked with land use models,
impact assessments and planning tools. Crop based land uses are represented
by the CropSyst cropping systems model and livestock by a Livestock Production
Model (LPM). The framework provides an opportunity to explore the linkages between
sub-components of the farm system and demonstrates the diversity of possible
climate change impacts. The paper indicates the importance of management decisions
in determining amelioration of the impacts of climate change on the farm system.
Farms constitute one of the fundamental units within the agri-ecosystem, hence
it is important to understanding the impacts of change and the subsequent requirements
for management adaptation. This understanding can then be used to better inform
policy makers.
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paper (pdf) download
presentation (pdf)
Climate
change and agriculture: are we asking the right questions?
Rvington
M., Bellocchi G., Russell G.
Workshop held in Edinburgh, 23 November, 2005